By Tiffany Williams –
Week 16 isn’t about math anymore — it’s about nerve.
The Broncos already punched their ticket, but now they’re staring at something bigger. Denver rolls into Sunday at 12-2 with Jacksonville in town, knowing one more statement could hand them the AFC West, the No. 1 seed, the lone first-round bye, and home-field advantage. That’s not scoreboard watching — that’s power. A win, plus help from the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills, and the AFC runs through Denver. Even without the chaos, the division is there for the taking with a win and a Chargers stumble. This is where contenders stop asking and start taking.
Buffalo is next in line. Ten wins, five straight years of dominance in the division, and now a trip to Cleveland with a playoff berth sitting on the table. Win, and the Bills can lock it up with help from either Indianapolis or Houston. Even a tie could do damage if the right teams fall. The Bills don’t need style points — just survival.
New England controls its own destiny. An 11-3 record, Sunday night lights in Baltimore, and the math is simple. Win or tie and the Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021. They don’t even need to lift a finger if Indianapolis or Houston trips. After finishing last in the division a year ago, this is a fast climb back to relevance.
Jacksonville isn’t just crashing the party — it’s trying to own it. The Jaguars visit Denver at 10-4 with multiple paths to clinching their first playoff berth since 2022. A win paired with help from Indianapolis or Houston seals it. Even a tie keeps the door open. Five straight wins have turned them from curiosity into threat.
The Chargers are lurking. Ten wins, a road game in Dallas, and the same math as Jacksonville. Win and get help, or tie and wait for the Colts and Texans to blink. The Chargers are one clean Sunday away from back-to-back playoff trips, something they haven’t done in over a decade.
Over in the NFC, the Rams are already in, but the rest of the conference is still playing musical chairs.
Philadelphia can end two decades of chaos in the NFC East with one trip to Washington. Win and it’s over. If Dallas loses, it’s over. Even a tie with a Cowboys tie gets it done. No excuses, no drama — just finish the job.
Saturday night in Chicago is pure tension. The Bears host the Packers with a playoff berth hanging in the balance. Chicago gets in with a win and a Detroit stumble, or even a tie if Detroit falls. Green Bay’s path is just as narrow — win with help, or tie and pray. This is old-school NFC North pressure, no margin for error.
San Francisco has the simplest script. Beat Indianapolis on Monday night and the 49ers are in. They don’t even need to play if Detroit loses. A tie plus a Detroit tie works too. The math favors them, but nothing is free in December.
Thursday night is a playoff game pretending to be a regular-season matchup. Seattle hosts the Rams knowing a win or even a tie punches their ticket. They can also back into the postseason if Detroit slips. The Rams are already in, but they’d love nothing more than to complicate everything.
This is the week where calculators get thrown away. Clinch now, or sweat until January. The league doesn’t care how you get there — only who survives.
Sports Insider Daily 